Global trade scenarios

Four potential scenarios to disrupt global trade

1

Global trade war

Retaliation by targeted countries, global supply chains disruptions, slower global growth coupled with rise in inflation

2

Divorce of giants

US-China de-coupling & retaliation limited to major economies, FDI diversion, re-shoring of supply chains, slower growth coupled with high inflation

3

New normal

Shifts in trade alliances and emergence of new trade blocs, adaptation to new tariffs and shorter or more regionalized supply chains

4

Back to business

Full rollback of tariffs, normalization of trade policies – Status quo maintained, no major disruption.

Using Whiteshield Trade Navigator©, governments can visualize real-time trade flows leveraging GPS data from cargo ships and planes